ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s business community continues to grapple with rising costs and uncertain economic conditions, according to the latest nationwide survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan for the fourth quarter of 2025.
The 16th wave of the Business Confidence Index (BCI), based on feedback from 571 enterprises across the country, suggests that sentiment has weakened for a second consecutive quarter though it still remains above levels recorded a year ago.
Compared with Q2 2025, businesses reported a noticeable dip in three headline indicators:
- Current business conditions dropped from +20% to +8%, with fewer firms describing their situation as favourable.
- Expectations for the next quarter declined from +22% to +12%, indicating a drop in optimism.
- Views on the direction of the country slid from –2% to –8%, reflecting a deeper sense of economic unease.
Despite these declines, Gallup notes that the scores still outperform results from late 2024 and much of 2022–23, showing that medium-term sentiment has not fully reversed.
Inflation Back on the Radar
Inflation re-emerged as the top challenge cited by businesses, with one in three respondents urging authorities to prioritise price stability. The survey points out that after months of gradual improvement, both food and energy prices have risen again in recent months.
Power Supply Remains a Persistent Concern
An almost unchanged 42% of businesses reported experiencing power outages on the survey day. The numbers highlight ongoing supply issues despite years of public investment in electricity infrastructure. Many firms say unreliable power continues to erode productivity and increase operational costs.
Government Performance Still Viewed Favourably
On economic management, 46% of businesses rate the incumbent PML-N government’s performance as better than the previous PTI administration — a trend consistent with earlier waves of the survey and slightly higher than last year.
‘Stability Not Enough,’ Says Gallup
Commenting on the findings, Gallup Pakistan Executive Director Bilal Gilani noted that while the decline in confidence is not drastic, it points to a broader structural challenge.
“Businesses are signalling that stabilization alone cannot sustain confidence. Without stronger growth, sentiment will continue to move in short bursts,” he said. He added that while the current government continues to enjoy comparatively higher trust among businesses, expectations for relief and reforms are rising.
