ISLAMABAD — U.S. President Donald Trump has stirred debate after claiming that Pakistan and the United States have reached an agreement to jointly develop Pakistan’s “massive” oil reserves. But how accurate is this statement?
“Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves,” Trump said, prompting questions across media and energy circles.
Pakistan’s current oil reality
In truth, Pakistan is heavily dependent on oil imports to meet its domestic energy needs. In the fiscal year 2024-25, the country imported petroleum products worth $15.93 billion, which accounted for nearly 30% of its total imports.
At the same time, Pakistan’s own oil production has been on the decline. During FY25, local crude oil production dropped by 11.8%, settling at an average of 62,225 barrels per day (bopd) — far below its consumption demand.
What about untapped reserves?
While Pakistan does not currently produce oil on a large scale, experts believe it may hold significant untapped shale oil and gas reserves. A 2015 report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that Pakistan could possess up to 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil and 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas — mostly concentrated in the Lower Indus Basin, which spans parts of Sindh and South Punjab.
The region’s shale formations have historically been the source of most of Pakistan’s conventional oil and gas discoveries.
In September 2024, Pakistani officials also confirmed a major offshore discovery of petroleum and gas. More recently, Parliamentary Secretary for Petroleum Mian Khan Bugti noted that exploratory work is ongoing in Sindh, with reserves in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also being evaluated for extraction.
Bottom line
Trump’s statement may not be entirely off the mark — Pakistan does appear to have large untapped reserves, especially shale-based. However, the key uncertainty lies in how much of it is economically recoverable, a question that can only be answered with substantial investment in exploration and extraction.
For now, Pakistan remains largely dependent on imported oil, and only time and technology will determine if its “massive reserves” become a real economic asset.
