Critics urge apology to wrongfully suspended officials as wheat import inquiries expose flawed decisions and selective accountability
ISLAMABAD: A looming wheat shortfall threatens to destabilize Pakistan’s food security, with official projections estimating a deficit of 0.65 million metric tons (MMT) for the current food year (April 1, 2025 – March 31, 2026). According to official estimates, wheat production for the 2024–2025 Rabi season stands at 28.43 MMT, 10% below last year’s output and well short of the national requirement of 33.58 MMT.
The Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MoNFS&R) estimates wheat availability for the current food year at 32.93 MMT, factoring in the 28.43 MMT in domestic production and 4.50 MMT in carry-forward stock. This still leaves a 0.65 MMT shortfall against national demand, which includes 30.08 MMT for a population of 26.59 million, 1.50 MMT for feed/losses, and 2.00 MMT for strategic reserves.
Despite the anticipated deficit, wheat prices in local markets have dropped from Rs. 81/kg to Rs. 70/kg, a 13.58% decrease between early March and late April 2025. Similarly, flour prices have fallen from Rs. 88/kg to Rs. 81/kg, reflecting a 7.95% drop. Experts attribute the price decline to the end of federal support prices under the current IMF program, reduced public procurement, sluggish private buying, inadequate storage, premature government releases, and the absence of a warehouse receipt system. However, economists warn that this downward trend may be temporary, with risks of post-harvest smuggling and hoarding likely to push prices upward, especially in light of the officially acknowledged shortfall.
Senior officials, including Deputy Agriculture Development Commissioner Mr. Asif, have voiced concern over inaccurate availability estimates and the risks of escalating prices. They also fear becoming scapegoats, recalling last year’s controversial suspensions and disciplinary proceedings against five MoNFS&R officials, proceedings that remain unresolved.
Ironically, the current shortfall vindicates the government’s previous decision (of Wheat Board’s revised decision) to import an additional 1.2 MMT of wheat between February and March 2024, supplementing the earlier approved 2.4 MMT import. This preemptive import helped avoid a projected 3.6 MMT deficit and stabilized prices during the last food year. Nevertheless, the suspension of officials involved in that decision remains unexplained.
Critics now argue that these officials deserve a formal apology. “May the authorities find the courage to acknowledge the politically driven and unjust actions taken against these professionals during last year’s farmer protests,” one commentator remarked.
In particular, questions have been raised about selective accountability. Two inquiry reports reveal that the Wheat Board, under the leadership of Dr. Kausar Abdullah Malik (then caretaker Minister for NFS&R) and Finance Minister Mr. Muhammad Aurangzaib, approved the import of additional wheat and the opening of Letters of Credit (LCs) after February 2024. This reversed an earlier decision made on February 14, 2024, to halt further wheat imports. Yet only two board members, Capt. (Retd.) Muhammad Asif (former Secretary MoNFS&R) and Mr. Imtiaz Ali Gopang (former Food Security Commissioner), along with three non-board officials were singled out for disciplinary action, while 25 other board members were spared.
Further controversy surrounds the inclusion of officials such as Dr. Waseem ul Hassan (Managing Director, Pakistan Oil Seed Board), Dr. Allah Ditta Abid (DG, Department of Plant Protection), and Mr. Suhail Shehzad (Director Technical DPP) in the second inquiry committee’s report, allegedly under pressure from Federal Minister for Establishment Mr. Ahad Khan Cheema. Critics claim their names were added in violation of the committee’s Terms of Reference and without corroborating evidence, tarnishing reputations unfairly, particularly as Mr. Hassan and Mr. Shehzad held no relevant position during the period in question.
Complicating matters further, Mr. Saleh Farooqi, who served as inquiry officer against the accused, was also a member of the Wheat Board by virtue of being Secretary of the Ministry of Commerce. Legal experts argue this dual role undermines the integrity of the inquiry. They also pointed out that the Prime Minister had deputed Mr. Aurangzaib to chair board meeting on March 26, 2024 on his behalf because he was also holding additional portfolio of MoNFS&R, approving wheat imports after the February deadline. Both actions, critics contend, suggest shared responsibility that should preclude selective punishment.
An inquiry report submitted in December 2024 by Saleh Farooqui, identifies Capt. (Retd.) Muhammad Mehmood, former Secretary MoNFS&R, as the primary initiator of the controversial wheat import summary for the 2023–2024 season. He is accused of failing to cap the quantity and duration of imports via the private sector. The fate of the five suspended officials named remains undisclosed, as the Prime Minister has yet to act on the report, four months after its submission. Notably, Mr. Mehmood, whose reputation is already doubted and contentious, has thus far escaped any disciplinary measures due to political connection with the ruling party.
Meanwhile, officials across the Ministry of Commerce, MoNFS&R, and agricultural agencies are reportedly hesitant to recommend lifting the current ban on wheat imports, imposed in July 2024 to appease local farmers. They are waiting for the wheat harvest to conclude and for explicit directions from the Prime Minister’s Office before moving a summary to address the newly acknowledged shortfall.
As Pakistan navigates this crisis amid an ongoing national emergency, the wheat shortfall has reignited debate among economists, policymakers, and agricultural experts over the urgent need for transparent governance, reliable forecasting, and long-term planning to ensure national food security, even more so when the country is at war and feeding both its people and its forces becomes a strategic imperative.
